OPINION: Province’s local COVID numbers, all but useless

In reality, the Powerview-Pine Falls region likely has two active cases, not 65

I stopped publishing covid numbers from the province in December because they were so obviously inaccurate when placed side-by-side with the numbers released from Sagkeeng (which is part of the province’s Powerview-Pine Falls region for COVID purposes).

In the current numbers released for the Powerview-Pine Falls region, the province is reporting a total of 157 cases: 1 death; 87 active cases; 65 recovered cases. Whereas, Sagkeeng’s release  yesterday indicated 105 total cases: 1 active; 104 recovered.

Most of the cases in the Powerview-Pine Falls region occurred in Sagkeeng (105 of 157 of the cases in the region) and the outbreak is pretty much over there, with one active case. Yet based on provincial reports, Powerview Pine Falls remains one of the worst places in the province for COVID.

So, what’s really happening with the remaining 48 cases not from Sagkeeng?Extrapolating Sagkeeng’s numbers from the provincial numbers (assuming that Sagkeeng is reporting accurately), the numbers would look like this:
48 Total; 1 Death; 47-48 recovered cases; 0-1 active cases.

It would be better if the province never began listing these “local” numbers.

Update:

I had addressed this issue with the Interlake-Eastern Health Authority. To be clear, this reporting is not coming from the IEHA, but provincial health. However, the IERHA did respond with the following explanation:

“Active and recovered data is not presented in real-time in the Cases by District of Residence chart. Regional health authorities report numbers to Manitoba public health officials who then compile and validate the data and report it through the public health information management system (PHIMS). PHIMS data is what is referenced for creation of the COVID-19 graphic that you’ve referenced. This process can reflect delays in reporting from RHAs and/or in the province updating case statuses. The process to reflect case counts in the Powerview-Pine Falls district is the same for reporting on all districts, none of the districts shown are reflecting real-time case counts.”

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